International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has projected that crude oil prices could average around $70 per barrel in 2026, provided global supply continues to outpace demand and market conditions remain relatively stable.
In its latest outlook on the global energy market, Fitch noted that oil prices are expected to remain moderate over the medium term due to increasing production from major oil-producing countries and a gradual slowdown in global demand growth. The agency indicated that Brent crude could hover around the $70 mark if supply from producers such as the United States, Canada and Brazil continues to expand while the OPEC+ alliance gradually unwinds production cuts.
According to the report, global oil supply is projected to grow faster than demand in the coming years, creating a surplus in the market. This oversupply is expected to limit the potential for sharp price increases despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and occasional supply disruptions.
Fitch explained that global oil demand growth is likely to slow to between 700,000 and 800,000 barrels per day, reflecting weaker economic growth in several major economies and the gradual shift towards cleaner energy sources.
The agency also highlighted that increased production from non-OPEC countries, combined with additional output from OPEC+ members as they ease production cuts, could add millions of barrels of oil to the global market.
“As supply growth is expected to exceed demand growth, the oil market may remain oversupplied, which will put downward pressure on prices,” Fitch said in its analysis.
Despite the relatively modest price outlook, Fitch noted that geopolitical developments — including conflicts in oil-producing regions, sanctions on major exporters, and disruptions to key shipping routes — could still introduce short-term volatility to the market.
Brent crude averaged about $80 per barrel in 2024, but analysts expect prices to gradually ease in the coming years as production rises and demand growth slows.
Fitch’s forecast suggests that while oil prices may experience periodic spikes due to geopolitical risks, the overall trend toward increased supply and moderating demand could keep average prices near the $70 per barrel level in 2026.
